Effects of Near-Term Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Infrastructure
RC-1700
Objective
Global climate models project an increasing rate of sea-level rise over the next 100 years, which will result in greater storm surge levels. Additionally, there is evidence that future hurricanes will be stronger over this period, further exacerbating the impact of storm surge on coastal military facilities. As a result, Eglin Air Force Base and similarly situated coastal military facilities will likely experience significant changes to environmental resources and man-made infrastructure due to shoreline retreat, increased flooding and erosion, increased seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers, and greater wind loads and storm surge.
The primary goal of this project is to quantify the potential impact and risk to coastal military infrastructure from near-term sea-level rise and the attendant increases in hurricane activity. Specific objectives include: (1) identify and quantify the responses of coastal system components to sea-level rise over the next century; (2) refine a large-scale numerical model for quantifying the hazard risk to coastal military facilities; (3) develop probability models for quantifying and managing uncertainty; and (4) enable cost-effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Technical Approach
The project will employ existing process-oriented numerical models and existing databases in order to quantify the effects of climate change on coastal infrastructure over the next 100 years. In some cases, the existing data sets will be supplemented by new data as needed. Models will incorporate newly developed geological and historic period site-specific storm history information. The models will be integrated to encompass all of the components of the coastal system. The integrated model will be used to evaluate how to make more reliable predictions of the effects of climate change and sea-level change on coastal systems (beaches, dunes, wetlands, etc.) and on coastal infrastructure. Model outputs will be tuned to specific scenarios of sea-level rise and changes in frequency or intensity of tropical storms.
Benefits
Despite uncertainties in climate projections, near-future climate change is expected to have a significant impact on coastal environments. The methodology developed in this project will provide a set of unique tools to Department of Defense decision makers and the scientific community for predicting, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of sea-level rise and associated phenomena (including storm surge) on coastal infrastructure. These predictive tools will be in a format that is readily available to use and apply to management decisions related to any coastal installation at risk from future sea-level change. (Anticipated Project Completion - 2012)
Symposium & Workshop
FY 2013 New Start Project Selections
Points of Contact
Principal Investigator
Dr. Joseph Donoghue
Florida State University
Phone: 850-644-2703
Program Manager
Resource Conservation and Climate Change
SERDP and ESTCP
Document Types
- Fact Sheet - Brief project summary with links to related documents and points of contact.
- Final Report - Comprehensive report for every completed SERDP and ESTCP project that contains all technical results.
- Cost & Performance Report - Overview of ESTCP demonstration activities, results, and conclusions, standardized to facilitate implementation decisions.
- Technical Report - Additional interim reports, laboratory reports, demonstration reports, and technology survey reports.
- Guidance - Instructional information on technical topics such as protocols and user’s guides.
- Workshop Report - Summary of workshop discussion and findings.
- Multimedia - On demand videos, animations, and webcasts highlighting featured initiatives or technologies.
- Model/Software - Computer programs and applications available for download.
- Database - Digitally organized collection of data available to search and access.