Identifying Indicators of State Change and Forecasting Future Vulnerability in Alaskan Boreal Ecosystems
RC-2109
Objective
Permafrost is a significant factor in the structure and function of Alaskan boreal ecosystems, and the soil organic layer mediates the effects of a changing climate on the ground thermal regime and permafrost stability. Understanding the mechanistic connections among vegetation, organic soil, and permafrost is critical for projecting the impact of climate change on permafrost in ecosystems that are subject to abrupt anthropogenic and natural disturbances to the organic layer.
The objectives of this project are to (1) determine mechanistic links among fire, soils, permafrost, and vegetation succession to develop and test field-based ecosystem indicators that can be used to directly predict boreal ecosystem vulnerability to state change and (2) forecast landscape change in response to projected changes in climate, fire regime, and fire management.
Technical Approach
To develop indicators that can be used to determine ecosystems at risk of state change in response to changes in climate, fire regime, or fire management, researchers will monitor vegetation recolonization, soils, and permafrost on a previously existing network of sites located on or adjacent to Department of Defense (DoD) lands in Interior Alaska affected by recent, severe wildfires. They will extend this network to include parallel measurements from sites located on DoD lands with recent prescribed fires and fuel treatments such as the 2001 Survey Line fire within the Fort Wainwright bombing range. Studies of vegetation stand history and organic layer re-accumulation will be conducted on an established network of mid-successional boreal ecosystems adjacent to and on DoD lands in Interior Alaska.
To accurately forecast how fire regime and fire management will interact with climate change to shape the future structure, function, and distribution of Alaskan boreal ecosystems on DoD and surrounding lands, researchers will incorporate field data sets on vegetation, soils, and permafrost into a model of landscape fire dynamics, the ALaska FRame Based EcoSystem COde (ALFRESCO), and into a model of ecosystem structure and function, the dynamic organic soil-dynamic vegetation model version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (DOS-DVM-TEM). These two stand-alone models will be coupled so that the influence of a changing climate on permafrost and vegetation can be assessed together with natural and managed changes in the fire regime. The performance of the coupled model will be evaluated using retrospective statistical data sets of past fire regime and forest structure in Interior Alaska. Future landscape distribution of vegetation and permafrost will be projected using the coupled model in combination with different scenarios of climate change, fire regime, and fire management.
Benefits
In this project DoD and surrounding lands in Interior Alaska will be used to explore and test the conceptual and mechanistic basis for threshold change and regime shift in the Alaskan boreal forest. Field measurements will be used in combination with spatially explicit numerical modeling to predict the response of permafrost ground and disturbance regimes to projected future changes in climate. The modeling will provide maps to help land managers identify those DoD lands that are resistant and those that are vulnerable to permafrost degradation under scenarios of disturbance and climate change. This also will enable land managers to explore the consequences of interactive changes in climate and management for vegetation composition, fire dynamics, and ecosystem structure and function. (Anticipated Project Completion - 2016)
Symposium & Workshop
FY 2013 New Start Project Selections
Points of Contact
Principal Investigator
Dr. Edward Schuur
University of Florida
Phone: 352-392-7913
Program Manager
Resource Conservation and Climate Change
SERDP and ESTCP
Document Types
- Fact Sheet - Brief project summary with links to related documents and points of contact.
- Final Report - Comprehensive report for every completed SERDP and ESTCP project that contains all technical results.
- Cost & Performance Report - Overview of ESTCP demonstration activities, results, and conclusions, standardized to facilitate implementation decisions.
- Technical Report - Additional interim reports, laboratory reports, demonstration reports, and technology survey reports.
- Guidance - Instructional information on technical topics such as protocols and user’s guides.
- Workshop Report - Summary of workshop discussion and findings.
- Multimedia - On demand videos, animations, and webcasts highlighting featured initiatives or technologies.
- Model/Software - Computer programs and applications available for download.
- Database - Digitally organized collection of data available to search and access.