Understanding Data Needs for Vulnerability Assessment and Decision Making to Manage Vulnerability of DoD Installations to Climate Change
RC-2206
Objective
The potential impacts of climate change on military infrastructure, operations, and readiness are a growing concern for U.S. national security. Department of Defense (DoD) officials, including military Service personnel, who manage built infrastructure and natural resources will face difficult questions and decisions regarding these impacts and how to prepare for them through adaptation. The challenges posed by these decisions are recognized in the Quadrennial Defense Review.
The objective of this project is to develop, pilot, and evaluate an approach to assess installation vulnerability tailored to DoD decision-making needs and processes. The following five research questions will be addressed:
- What is the baseline vulnerability of an installation with respect to current extreme climate events and seasonal climate variability?
- How do decision makers use available information on climate extremes and seasonal variability to manage assets and operations? What additional information would be useful?
- Using insights from climate models, methods to produce higher resolution climate information, observations, and climate processes research, what information can be provided about future climate for the region in which the facilities are located?
- What are the vulnerabilities of the pilot installations to potential changes in climate and the implications of these vulnerabilities for readiness and mission attainment?
- What assessment framework will support comparative evaluation of vulnerability across installations and help DoD personnel establish adaptation priorities?
Technical Approach
In the pilot assessments, researchers will identify and examine the current vulnerability of installations to climate changes and extreme weather events and review decision processes to clarify future climate information needs. Assessing baseline vulnerability includes identifying the important assets (including ecosystems), their age and physical condition, and management systems and decision making regarding effects of climate and weather. Rather than reliance only on climate change projections as modeled by general circulation models (GCMs), a central and innovative dimension of this method is to use an expert judgment-based approach. This approach includes process-level credibility analysis, i.e., tracing the effects of errors in how climate models represent important climate processes on model projections of future conditions. Researchers will then develop a framework for comparative vulnerability assessments of DoD installations and pilot it at three installations. In the final step, the implications for structuring future assessments to support prioritization of adaptation measures will be analyzed, specifically focusing on decision-support strategies and analytic methods for ongoing infrastructure decision-making processes. Active engagement with DoD and installation personnel is critical to developing decision-support strategies and analytic methods that can be used effectively by these personnel.
Benefits
This project will identify the types of climate information used and needed by DoD personnel to assess future climate change risks. A coordinated and thorough approach will be developed to assess installation vulnerability tailored to DoD decision making. These data and methods will be evaluated in a small number of pilot studies. Methods also will be extended to assess the climate change vulnerability of infrastructure systems. (Anticipated Project Completion - 2015)
Symposium & Workshop
FY 2013 New Start Project Selections
Points of Contact
Principal Investigator
Dr. Richard Moss
Battelle, Pacific Northwest Division
Phone: 301-314-6711
Fax: 301-314-6719
Program Manager
Resource Conservation and Climate Change
SERDP and ESTCP
Document Types
- Fact Sheet - Brief project summary with links to related documents and points of contact.
- Final Report - Comprehensive report for every completed SERDP and ESTCP project that contains all technical results.
- Cost & Performance Report - Overview of ESTCP demonstration activities, results, and conclusions, standardized to facilitate implementation decisions.
- Technical Report - Additional interim reports, laboratory reports, demonstration reports, and technology survey reports.
- Guidance - Instructional information on technical topics such as protocols and user’s guides.
- Workshop Report - Summary of workshop discussion and findings.
- Multimedia - On demand videos, animations, and webcasts highlighting featured initiatives or technologies.
- Model/Software - Computer programs and applications available for download.
- Database - Digitally organized collection of data available to search and access.