Climate Change Impacts to Department of Defense Installations
RC-2242
Objective
This project is aimed at providing Department of Defense (DoD) with a comprehensive analysis of the uncertainty associated with generating climate projections at the regional scale that can be used by end users and decision makers to quantify and plan for the impacts of future climate change at specific locations. The emphasis of this analysis is on generating probability distributions of downscaled climate variables for individual locations. The merits and limitations of commonly used downscaling models, ranging from simple to complex, will be compared, and their appropriateness for application at installation scales will be evaluated. Downscaling of projections and associated uncertainties must be comprehensive to account for the variability of projections due to parameter choices, data features, model hierarchy, inter-model variability, and downscaling methodology. Building on the cutting-edge hierarchical statistical methods for estimating uncertainty in data and models, the researchers plan to generate high-resolution climate projections at selected DoD installations by combining state-of-the-art dynamical and statistical downscaling models with quality-controlled observations and the latest simulations from global models of the Earth’s climate system. Site selection and selection of variables and parameters for downscaling will be based on a comprehensive understanding of the current and projected roles that weather and climate play in operating, maintaining, and planning for DoD facilities and installations. This project will draw on the researchers’ extensive experience in assessment of local and regional climate, development and comparison of downscaling models, vulnerability assessment, adaptation methodologies, and hierarchical statistical models for estimating uncertainty.
Technical Approach
The first step is to collect and evaluate available and relevant weather and climate information for specific DoD installations of interest. Close interactions, including interactive interviews with DoD and associated installation end users and decision makers, will be a critical component in identifying climate variables and key vulnerabilities of interest. Next, observational data will be collected and subjected to quality control. Projected changes in climate variables and vulnerabilities will be evaluated by using appropriate climate models at the relevant spatial scales for selected DoD installations, including downscaling of pre-computed global- and regional-scale climate model outputs. Projections will be generated and evaluated by using multiple models and inputs to quantify the importance of uncertainty due to natural variability, scientific limitations, human choices, and regional response to global change. Site-specific uncertainty estimates for the downscaled projections will be computed. The researchers will use the hierarchical statistical methods for estimating uncertainty that have shown significant promise in uncertainty estimation when applied to downscaled ensemble calculations of climate projections. Finally, this information will be synthesized into an illustrative example that can be used to structure the development of climate projections and impact analyses for any DoD installation. A user guide will be generated to provide: (1) a critical overview of the downscaling models, methodologies, and data sets employed in the project; (2) the advantages and disadvantages of using each method; (3) geographical dependence of bias for each method; and (4) uncertainties associated with the downscaling process. All data and analysis accompanying this example will be provided to DoD in an easily accessible format for use in decision making and planning exercises.
Benefits
This project will generate a knowledge base, data sets, tools, preliminary assessments of vulnerabilities due to climate change (for ten DoD installations), expected changes in operating parameters such as heating and cooling needs, and potential challenges for range management. The researchers will evaluate the value added and the appropriateness of a range of methods for generating high-resolution projections for individual DoD installations to construct a framework that can guide appropriate use of climate projections for future local climate impact analyses. By generating high-resolution projections and assessing associated uncertainty at specific pilot locations, the researchers will provide essential input for planning for changing local environments that might affect DoD facilities and installations. For ten pilot locations, the project also will provide a comprehensive summary of current climate and weather data that are used for day-to-day operations and long-term planning activities at selected DoD installations. The methodology, observational data sets, and model products produced during the course of the project will be provided in an easily accessible database for future use by DoD. Together, these products are intended meet the ultimate goal of assisting DoD in developing informed policies for addressing and adapting to future change.
Symposium & Workshop
FY 2013 New Start Project Selections
Points of Contact
Principal Investigator
Dr. Veerabhadra Kotamarthi
Argonne National Laboratory
Phone: 630-252-7164
Program Manager
Resource Conservation and Climate Change
SERDP and ESTCP
Document Types
- Fact Sheet - Brief project summary with links to related documents and points of contact.
- Final Report - Comprehensive report for every completed SERDP and ESTCP project that contains all technical results.
- Cost & Performance Report - Overview of ESTCP demonstration activities, results, and conclusions, standardized to facilitate implementation decisions.
- Technical Report - Additional interim reports, laboratory reports, demonstration reports, and technology survey reports.
- Guidance - Instructional information on technical topics such as protocols and user’s guides.
- Workshop Report - Summary of workshop discussion and findings.
- Multimedia - On demand videos, animations, and webcasts highlighting featured initiatives or technologies.
- Model/Software - Computer programs and applications available for download.
- Database - Digitally organized collection of data available to search and access.