Background:

Global climate models project an increasing rate of sea-level rise over the next 100 years, which will result in greater storm surge levels. Additionally, there is evidence that future hurricanes will be stronger over this period, further exacerbating the impact of storm surge on coastal military facilities. As a result, Eglin Air Force Base and similarly situated coastal military facilities will likely experience significant changes to environmental resources and man-made infrastructure due to shoreline retreat, increased flooding and erosion, increased seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers, and greater wind loads and storm surge.

Objective:

The primary goal of this project is to quantify the potential impact and risk to coastal military infrastructure from near-term sea-level rise and the attendant increases in hurricane activity. Specific objectives include: (1) identify and quantify the responses of coastal system components to sea-level rise over the next century; (2) refine a large-scale numerical model for quantifying the hazard risk to coastal military facilities; (3) develop probability models for quantifying and managing uncertainty; and (4) enable cost-effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Process/Technology Description:

The project will employ existing process-oriented numerical models and existing databases in order to quantify the effects of climate change on coastal infrastructure over the next 100 years. In some cases, the existing data sets will be supplemented by new data as needed. Models will incorporate newly developed geological and historic period site-specific storm history information. The models will be integrated to encompass all of the components of the coastal system. The integrated model will be used to evaluate how to make more reliable predictions of the effects of climate change and sea-level change on coastal systems (beaches, dunes, wetlands, etc.) and on coastal infrastructure. Model outputs will be tuned to specific scenarios of sea-level rise and changes in frequency or intensity of tropical storms.

Expected Benefits:

Despite uncertainties in climate projections, near-future climate change is expected to have a significant impact on coastal environments. The methodology developed in this project will provide a set of unique tools to Department of Defense decision makers and the scientific community for predicting, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of sea-level rise and associated phenomena (including storm surge) on coastal infrastructure. These predictive tools will be in a format that is readily available to use and apply to management decisions related to any coastal installation at risk from future sea-level change. (Anticipated Project Completion - 2012)

Contact Information:

Dr. Joseph Donoghue
Florida State University
Department of Geological Sciences
Tallahassee, FL 32306-4166
Phone: (850) 644-2703
Fax: (850) 644-4214
E-mail: jfdonoghue@fsu.edu